2024-08-29 06:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Overseas Development (00688) [3] Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2024 decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 86.9 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 23.5% to 10.31 billion yuan, which was below market expectations [3] - The company focuses on first and second-tier cities for sales and land acquisition, with a sales target for 2024 remaining stable despite industry challenges [3] - The company maintains a strong financial position with low financing costs and green indicators under the "three red lines" policy, indicating a robust development outlook [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 86.9 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.31 billion yuan, down 23.5% [3] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin were 22.1% and 11.9%, respectively, showing declines of 0.5 percentage points and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, representing 28% of core net profit, an increase of 2 percentage points year-on-year [3] Sales and Land Acquisition - H1 2024 sales amounted to 148.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 18% year-on-year, with a focus on core first and second-tier cities [3] - The average selling price was 27,300 yuan per square meter, up 21.7% year-on-year [3] - The land acquisition amount for H1 2024 was 12.9 billion yuan, down 66% year-on-year, with a land acquisition intensity of 9% [3] Financial Health - The average financing cost was 3.5%, positioning the company at the top of the industry [3] - As of H1 2024, the asset-liability ratio and net debt ratio were 50.0% and 38.7%, respectively, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.9 times [3] - The company reported commercial revenue of 3.54 billion yuan, up 19.8% year-on-year, with a commercial operation scale of 8.71 million square meters [3] Investment Outlook - The report suggests that despite a decline in performance, the company’s focus on first and second-tier cities and its strong financial metrics support a positive investment outlook [3] - The earnings per share forecast for 2024-2025 has been adjusted to 2.11, 2.12, and 2.13 yuan, with a current PE ratio of only 5 times [3]