LI AUTO(02015) 中国银河·2024-08-29 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 573.12 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.81%, but net profit decreased by 47.50% to 16.92 billion yuan [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 316.78 billion yuan, up 10.56% year-on-year and 23.58% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 11.00 billion yuan, down 52.05% year-on-year but up 85.55% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The gross margin for the automotive sales business in H1 2024 was 19.01%, down 1.53 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin at 18.75%, down 2.30 percentage points year-on-year and 0.59 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's Q2 vehicle delivery volume was 108,600 units, with the L6 model accounting for 36% of deliveries, driving the average vehicle price down to 279,200 yuan, a decrease of 44,000 yuan year-on-year [1] - The company expects Q3 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 145,000 and 155,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% to 47.5%, with revenue projected to be between 394 billion and 422 billion yuan, up 13.7% to 21.6% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The company's R&D expenses in H1 2024 were 6.076 billion yuan, up 42.04% year-on-year, with the R&D expense ratio increasing by 1.58 percentage points to 10.60% [1] - Sales, general, and administrative expenses in H1 2024 were 5.793 billion yuan, up 46.48% year-on-year, with the expense ratio increasing by 1.77 percentage points to 10.11% [1] - The company reduced its R&D personnel by 20% to 5,373 and general and administrative personnel by 20% to 2,384 by the end of June 2024, leading to a decrease in Q2 R&D expenses by 0.70% quarter-on-quarter and a reduction in the R&D expense ratio by 2.34 percentage points to 9.56% [1] - The company's operating cash flow in H1 2024 was -3.771 billion yuan, but improved significantly in Q2 to -429 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter narrowing [1] - The company's investment cash flow in H1 2024 was -6.937 billion yuan, with Q2 investment cash flow at -3.839 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.92% [1] - As of June 30, 2024, the company had cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash totaling 80.789 billion yuan, providing ample support for continued investment [1] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 1.51279 trillion yuan, 2.21679 trillion yuan, and 2.89411 trillion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 7.743 billion yuan, 15.245 billion yuan, and 22.317 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 3.65 yuan, 7.18 yuan, and 10.52 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The PE ratio is expected to be 22.21x, 11.28x, and 7.71x in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]