Guolian Securities·2024-08-29 13:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for CITIC Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [6][29]. Core Views - CITIC Securities reported a total operating revenue of 30.18 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.57 billion yuan, down 6.51% year-on-year. The weighted average ROE was 3.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In Q2 2024, the single-quarter operating revenue was 16.43 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.61 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year but up 13% quarter-on-quarter [11][34]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, CITIC Securities achieved brokerage business revenue of 4.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year, accounting for 18.4% of the main securities revenue. In Q2 2024, brokerage revenue was 2.44 billion yuan, down 10% year-on-year and 0.2% quarter-on-quarter. The asset management business generated revenue of 4.91 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, with Q2 2024 revenue at 2.56 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter [12][35]. Investment Banking - The investment banking business generated revenue of 1.74 billion yuan in H1 2024, a significant decrease of 54.6% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the revenue was 870 million yuan, down 53% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter. The company maintained a leading position in domestic investment banking, with an IPO scale of 5.1 billion yuan in H1 2024, a decrease of 85% year-on-year, and a market share of 15.59%, ranking second in the industry [13][36]. Investment Income - The investment income (including exchange gains) for H1 2024 was 13.23 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the investment income was 6.9 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter. The company’s financial assets totaled 814.1 billion yuan at the end of H1 2024, an increase of 17% year-on-year [14][37]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for CITIC Securities remains unchanged, with projected revenues of 60.2 billion yuan, 63.5 billion yuan, and 67.3 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.2%, 5.5%, and 6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 20 billion yuan, 21.3 billion yuan, and 22.7 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding EPS of 1.35, 1.44, and 1.53 yuan per share [14][38].