月度中国宏观洞察：静待经济动能改善

Group 1: Economic Performance - July economic data indicates continued weakness in economic momentum, with retail sales and CPI showing improvement but sustainability is in doubt[2] - Fixed asset investment, credit, and export data were weaker than expected, impacting industrial production and manufacturing investment growth, which slowed to 5.1% in July[4] - The annual economic growth forecast is 4.9%, facing downward risks, with a projected growth of 4.7%-4.8% in the second half of the year[2] Group 2: Policy Support - August saw a quiet period for policy support, but further measures are expected to stabilize the economy, including a potential 25-50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut[2] - Fiscal policy is shifting focus towards promoting consumption and mitigating risks, with expectations for more reserve projects to prevent a rapid decline in infrastructure investment growth[2] - Real estate policies are aimed at helping companies reduce inventory, but progress has been slow, indicating a need for expanded support measures[2] Group 3: Currency and Trade - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.2 in the short term, influenced by the anticipated mild recovery of the USD index[2] - The appreciation of the RMB in August was primarily due to the depreciation of the USD index, which fell by 3.3% during the month[14] - The outcome of the upcoming US presidential election may impact the RMB exchange rate, with potential depreciation if Trump is elected[14]