Tsingtao Brewery(SH:600600) Guolian Securities·2024-08-31 08:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600) is "Buy" (maintained) [7][11]. Core Views - The report indicates that due to weak consumption recovery, the company's revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 33.393 billion, 34.715 billion, and 36.064 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -1.60%, +3.96%, and +3.89% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.629 billion, 4.986 billion, and 5.321 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.45%, 7.72%, and 6.71% respectively. The corresponding three-year CAGR is 7.63%, with PE valuations of 18, 16, and 15X for 2024-2026 [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Qingdao Beer achieved revenue of 20.068 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.642 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31% year-on-year. The Q2 2024 revenue was 9.918 billion yuan, down 8.89% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.044 billion yuan, up 3.55% year-on-year [11][12]. Sales and Pricing - The company sold 4.63 million kiloliters in H1 2024, a decrease of 7.82% year-on-year. The average price per ton was 4,334.41 yuan, an increase of 0.83% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 2,531.15 yuan, a decrease of 3.14% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the sales volume was 2.446 million kiloliters, down 8.05% year-on-year, with an average price of 4,054.90 yuan, down 0.91% year-on-year [11][12]. Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 42.79%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost improvements. The net profit margin was 20.61%, up 2.47 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the cost benefits will continue, supporting the "Buy" rating. The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end domestic beer market, with room for price increases in the future [3][11].