CTG DUTY-FREE(SH:601888) Guolian Securities·2024-09-01 00:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company adheres to a high-quality development approach, maintaining stable profitability despite market pressures [11] - The sales in Hainan's duty-free market faced challenges, with a significant decline in sales figures [11] - The company is expected to benefit from new policies regarding city duty-free shops, positioning it as a core beneficiary [11] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a recovery trend, with projected revenues of 628.8 billion, 689.8 billion, and 761.8 billion respectively [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 31.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8%, and a net profit of 3.28 billion yuan, down 15.1% [11] - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 33.53%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved sales structure [11] - The company’s net profit margin for the first half of 2024 was 11.7%, reflecting a slight increase despite sales pressures [11] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 3.1, 3.6, and 4.1 yuan respectively [11] Market Context - The Hainan duty-free shopping market saw a 29.9% decline in shopping amounts in the first half of 2024, with a corresponding drop in the number of shoppers [11] - The company’s sales in Sanya's duty-free stores also experienced significant declines, with revenue down 29.0% [11] - The new city duty-free policy is expected to create additional growth opportunities for the company starting from October 1, 2024 [11]