国防军工行业周报：短中长期视角看高端碳纤维当前的需求拐点

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the defense and military industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a demand inflection point for high-end carbon fiber in the short, medium, and long term, driven by technological breakthroughs and increased applications in aerospace and military sectors [1][10][15] - T800H carbon fiber is expected to become the primary material for next-generation military aircraft, with significant growth potential [15] - The carbon fiber industry is poised for substantial growth, particularly in aerospace, military, and emerging sectors like eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing) vehicles [34][57][61] Carbon Fiber Classification and Applications - Carbon fiber is classified based on raw material type, tow size, and mechanical properties, with small-tow, high-modulus fibers primarily used in aerospace and military applications [5][6] - Applications span across aircraft, military equipment, automotive, wind energy, rail transportation, construction, and sports equipment, with varying strength and modulus requirements [6] Military Aircraft and Carbon Fiber Usage - The evolution of military aircraft composites usage in the US shows a three-stage progression, with the latest F-35 aircraft using 35% composites [8][10] - T800-level carbon fiber is critical for primary load-bearing structures in aircraft, enabling a significant increase in composite usage [10][12] - China's military aircraft are undergoing a two-stage development, with composite usage rapidly increasing from 10% to over 30% in next-generation aircraft [15] Helicopter and UAV Applications - Advanced helicopters in Western countries use over 90% composites, while China's new-generation helicopters have surpassed 50% composite usage, with T800 carbon fiber being introduced [19][21] - UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) have composite usage ranging from 60% to 90%, with carbon fiber being the dominant material due to its lightweight and high-strength properties [23][24] Satellite and Missile Applications - Carbon fiber composites are extensively used in satellites, reducing structural weight from over 15% to 6-7% of total mass, with applications in solar panels, antennae, and structural components [37][38] - In missiles, carbon fiber composites significantly reduce weight, increasing range and strike capability, with applications in engine casings, launch tubes, and thermal protection systems [41][42] Civil Aviation and C919 - The C919 aircraft has a composite usage of 11.5%, with potential for growth in future models like the CR929, which may exceed 50% composite usage [48] - Domestic suppliers like Guangwei Composite and AVIC High-Tech are actively participating in the C919 program, with T300 and T800 carbon fibers undergoing certification [54][55] eVTOL and Future Growth - eVTOL vehicles are expected to drive significant demand for carbon fiber, with composites accounting for over 70% of material usage, primarily in structural and propulsion systems [57][58] - The carbon fiber demand for eVTOL is projected to reach 10,335 tons from 2024 to 2030, becoming a key growth driver in the aerospace sector [59][61] Carbon Fiber Industry Challenges - The carbon fiber industry faces oversupply and price declines, with 2023 demand dropping by 7.2% despite a 25.7% increase in production capacity [66] - Companies like Guangwei Composite are expanding production, but price pressures and increased depreciation costs may impact profitability in the short term [69][73] Military Carbon Fiber Profitability - Military-grade carbon fiber exhibits strong profitability resilience, with Guangwei Composite maintaining high gross margins even with potential price reductions [87] - Scale effects and cost reductions through increased production capacity help mitigate the impact of price declines on profitability [81][86]