8月PMI数据点评：低预期下制造企业生产采购意愿下滑

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from July, indicating continued contraction in manufacturing activity[1] - The new orders index for August is 48.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from July, reflecting weak demand[2] - The production index stands at 49.8%, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first contraction since March[2] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as electrical machinery and computer equipment, show resilience with new orders indices above the expansion threshold, increasing by 4.1 and 0.7 percentage points respectively[3] - General and specialized equipment manufacturing also maintain high activity levels, with new orders indices rising by 6.4 and 5.1 percentage points respectively[4] Employment and Inventory Trends - The employment index in manufacturing is at 48.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from July, indicating a decline in workforce engagement[2] - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.6%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the finished goods inventory index has increased to 48.5%, up 0.7 percentage points[2] Non-Manufacturing Insights - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly increased to 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from July, indicating marginal improvement in the service sector[6] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing is at 46.3%, a rise of 0.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index fell to 47.6%, down 2.0 percentage points from July[6] Risks and Outlook - The report highlights risks such as unexpected resilience in overseas inflation and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact economic stability[4]