Guolian Securities·2024-09-02 05:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The bank's overall operations are stable, with a slight decline in revenue and net profit in H1 2024 compared to the previous year, attributed to weaker net interest income and other non-interest income [10] - The bank maintains a balanced credit allocation and exhibits strong asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.84% as of H1 2024 [10] - The bank's net interest income increased by 1.83% year-on-year, while the loan balance grew by 10.69% year-on-year [10] - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a provision coverage ratio of 325.61% as of H1 2024 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Postal Savings Bank achieved operating revenue of 176.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 48.82 billion yuan, down 1.51% year-on-year [10] - The bank's interest income and other non-interest income showed mixed results, with net interest income growing by 1.83% but other non-interest income declining [10] Credit and Asset Quality - As of H1 2024, the bank's loan balance reached 8.66 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.69% [10] - The net interest margin stood at 1.91%, with a slight contraction compared to the previous quarter [10] - The bank's non-performing loan generation rate improved, with a notable decrease in the generation rate for corporate and personal consumption loans [10] Future Outlook - The bank's revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 346.5 billion, 364.7 billion, and 391.3 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 1.17%, 5.25%, and 7.30% respectively [11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 89.5 billion, 95.1 billion, and 102 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.72%, 6.34%, and 7.16% respectively [11]