零部件如何穿越周期？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive parts industry [1]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has experienced two major cycles since 2016, with the first phase from 2016 to 2019 marked by declining sales and a shift towards self-replacement of parts, while the second phase from 2019 to present has seen a recovery in sales and accelerated electrification, driven by the Tesla supply chain [13][21]. - Key companies like Xingyu and Fuyao have demonstrated resilience through customer expansion and product upgrades, contributing to their growth despite market fluctuations [25][42]. Summary by Sections Industry Cycles - The first cycle (2016-2019) saw a decline in automotive sales, but parts companies like Xingyu achieved significant stock price increases due to performance growth and valuation expansion [17]. - The second cycle (2019-present) has been characterized by a recovery in automotive sales and a focus on electrification, with companies like New Spring and Top Group showing substantial performance growth [21]. Company Performance - Xingyu has maintained a stable growth trajectory with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.2% in revenue and 17.6% in net profit from 2011 to 2023, despite challenges in 2021 due to rising raw material costs [26]. - Fuyao Glass has seen its revenue grow from 11.5 billion in 2013 to 33.16 billion in 2023, with a net profit increase from 1.92 billion to 5.63 billion during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of approximately 11.2% in revenue and 11.4% in profit [42]. Market Trends - The report highlights the importance of customer expansion and product upgrades in driving growth for companies like Xingyu, which has successfully penetrated new markets by initially offering lower-margin products [29]. - The LED penetration rate in the automotive lighting market is expected to increase significantly, with the overall market projected to exceed 93.4 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 16% from 2020 to 2025 [33]. Future Outlook - The automotive parts industry is expected to continue evolving with trends in electrification, smart technology, and innovation, creating new growth opportunities in segments such as lightweight materials, integrated die-casting, and advanced driver-assistance systems [67]. - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on technological innovation and high-growth segments to navigate market fluctuations and maintain competitive advantages [55].