HSTD(600054) 西南证券·2024-09-02 05:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huangshan Tourism with a target price of 13.40 yuan for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - Huangshan Tourism's H1 2024 revenue was 830 million yuan, down 0.4% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company dropping 34.1% to 130 million yuan [1] - The company's performance decline was attributed to multiple factors including free ticket policy, heavy rainfall, increased costs, and higher income tax expenses [1] - Despite challenges, the cableway business showed resilience with revenue of 310 million yuan, up 1.3% YoY, and gross margin improving to 88.5% [1] - Future growth catalysts include the opening of Chihuang High-speed Railway and ongoing development of Huashan Mystery Cave's Flower Sea Art Realm [1] Business Performance Revenue Breakdown - Q2 2024 revenue was 500 million yuan, down 0.3% YoY [1] - Scenic area business revenue decreased 16.0% due to free ticket policy [1] - Hotel business gross margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points, while Huizhou cuisine business gross margin dropped 4.3 percentage points [1] Operational Metrics - Huangshan Scenic Area received 2.14 million visitors in H1 2024, up 2.3% YoY [1] - July 2024 saw 481,400 visitors, an 8.4% YoY increase [1] Future Development - Beihai Hotel renovation project is expected to complete by end of 2024, with over 70% of exterior construction completed [2] - Huangshan East Sea Scenic Area and East Gate Cableway are projected to open by mid-2025 [2] Financial Projections - Forecasted net profit attributable to parent company for 2024-2026: 400 million, 490 million, and 560 million yuan respectively [2] - Estimated EPS for 2024-2026: 0.58, 0.67, and 0.77 yuan [3] - Projected ROE for 2024-2026: 8.61%, 9.68%, and 10.13% [3] Valuation - Comparable companies (Lijiang Tourism, Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism) average PE for 2024-2026: 24x, 20x, 18x [6] - Huangshan Tourism's 2025 PE is estimated at 20x, supporting the target price of 13.40 yuan [6] Business Segment Projections Scenic Area Business - Projected 2024-2026 revenue: 2.64 billion, 2.66 billion, and 2.97 billion yuan [5] - Expected gross margin: 32.0%, 30.0%, and 29.0% [5] Cableway Business - Forecasted 2024-2026 revenue: 7.00 billion, 8.30 billion, and 9.21 billion yuan [5] - Projected gross margin: 89.6%, 87.8%, and 86.5% [5] Hotel Business - Estimated 2024-2026 revenue: 4.82 billion, 6.21 billion, and 6.52 billion yuan [5] - Expected gross margin: 38.7%, 42.0%, and 43.0% [5]