石油化工行业周报：PTA价格短期承压，旺季或有一定修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating potential for recovery in the PTA market during the upcoming peak season [3][4]. Core Insights - PTA prices have been under pressure since July, reaching a two-year low of 5262 CNY/ton as of August 30, with a slight decrease of 18 CNY/ton week-on-week. However, there is an expectation for demand recovery as the peak season approaches [4][6]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude closing at 78.80 USD/barrel, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.28% week-on-week. The report anticipates a sustained high-level fluctuation in oil prices, which could benefit the oil service sector [4][19]. - The refining sector is seeing mixed results, with a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin price spreads show varied trends. The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as the economy recovers [4][42]. Summary by Sections PTA Market - PTA prices have dropped significantly, with a current settlement price of 5262 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton from the previous week. The supply side has seen an increase in operating rates, reaching 82.94% as of August 30, due to the restart of previously shut-down facilities [4][8]. - Demand from downstream polyester factories has decreased due to high inventory levels, but there are signs of recovery as the peak season approaches, which is expected to improve PTA demand [4][11]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight decline, closing at 78.80 USD/barrel, while the NYMEX price was 73.55 USD/barrel. The report notes a decrease in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, which could indicate a tightening market [19][20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased to 583, down 2 from the previous week, indicating a potential slowdown in exploration activities [27][30]. Refining Sector - The report highlights a decrease in the Singapore refining margin, which fell to 6.73 USD/barrel, while the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased to 12.87 USD/barrel [42][47]. - Olefin prices have shown mixed trends, with ethylene prices in Northeast Asia rising to 880 USD/ton, while propylene prices have declined to 835 USD/ton [49][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend companies in the oil sector, such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Petroleum, as well as quality companies in the refining sector like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical. It also suggests investing in polyester companies like Tongkun Co., Ltd. as demand is expected to recover [16][17].