川财证券：研究所晨报-20240902

Core Insights - The report indicates that from January to July 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises increased by 3.6% year-on-year, reflecting a stable recovery trend supported by a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [4][12] - The manufacturing sector's profit growth is driven by stable revenue growth and a reduction in PPI's cumulative year-on-year decline by 0.1 percentage points [4][12] - The report anticipates that industrial profits will continue to recover throughout the year, bolstered by increasing export growth and domestic demand initiatives [4][12] Market Highlights - The report notes a mixed performance in stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index rose [3][11] - The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, indicating a slower pace for potential interest rate cuts [3][11] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China was reported at 49.1%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in commodity prices [11][12] Sector Analysis - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 10.2% year-on-year, benefiting from rapid export growth and a moderate recovery in domestic consumption [4][12] - Specific industries such as paper and chemical fiber experienced substantial profit growth, with increases of 108% and 105% respectively [4][12] - The report highlights that the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors achieved profit growth rates of 6.1% and 12.8%, respectively, outpacing the average growth rate of industrial profits [12][13] Policy Insights - The report discusses the government's initiatives to enhance domestic demand through policies like the replacement of old electric bicycles with new ones, which is expected to stimulate consumption [6][7] - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for proactive fiscal policies to support economic recovery and high-quality development [7][12] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the implementation of consumption upgrade policies will further improve profit margins in the consumer goods manufacturing sector [4][12] - It also indicates that new production capabilities and industrial upgrades will play a crucial role in sustaining the positive momentum of the industrial economy [4][12]