海外宏观周报：美元与美债收益率回升 BIS认为套息交易相关风险仍存

Economic Indicators - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) nominal year-on-year growth rate for July was 5.3%, with a real growth rate of 2.8%[35] - The revised annualized GDP growth rate for Q2 increased from 2.8% to 3.0%, with consumer spending revised up from 2.5% to 2.9%[35] - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.4%, with a low probability of significant negative growth in the labor market this year[5] Market Trends - The US dollar index rose to 101.7320, and the 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 11.9 basis points to 3.914%[7] - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and SENSEX30 Index rising, while the Nasdaq and Korean Composite Index declined[7] - The BIS estimated that the impact of the unwinding of carry trades in early August was approximately $250 billion, indicating ongoing market volatility risks[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation rate for July was 2.50% year-on-year, with core PCE inflation at 2.62%[35] - The Federal Reserve's confidence in inflation returning to 2% is supported by the current economic data, suggesting a potential for interest rate adjustments in the future[37] - The market maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook on interest rate cuts, although this may be tempered by upcoming labor data and economic indicators[36]