海外宏观周报：美元与美债收益率回升，BIS认为套息交易相关风险仍存

Economic Indicators - As of September 1, the US dollar index rose to 101.7320, indicating a recovery in the dollar's strength[2] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 11.9 basis points to 3.914%[2] - July personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.3% and a real growth of 2.8%[35] Inflation and GDP - The PCE inflation rate for July was 2.50% year-on-year and 0.16% month-on-month, while core PCE inflation was 2.62% year-on-year[35] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%, with consumer spending adjusted from 2.5% to 2.9%[35] Market Trends - The market maintains a slightly optimistic outlook on interest rate cuts, although the path to a "soft landing" for the US economy suggests that previous declines in Treasury yields and the dollar may stabilize[2] - The BIS estimates that the impact of the unwinding of carry trades in early August was at least $250 billion, indicating significant market volatility[3] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is expected to stabilize around 4.4%, with a low probability of a significant rise in the near term[5] - Labor market indicators suggest that while there is some weakening, a recession is unlikely in the short term[5] Political Landscape - The political situation remains tight, with Kamala Harris slightly leading in polls by about 1%, but her policies largely align with the current administration, which may not provide significant surprises[35]