白酒2024年中报总结：24Q2增速放缓，基本面压力开始显现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, particularly focusing on the premium segment despite short-term pressures on overall demand [2][3]. Core Insights - The overall demand in the liquor industry is under short-term pressure due to macroeconomic factors, but the trend of concentration and differentiation among leading brands remains unchanged. The report highlights that if demand does not improve in Q3 2024, inventory levels may rise, prompting companies to adjust their annual growth targets. In the medium to long term, the strategic determination and execution capabilities of companies are deemed more important than current growth rates [2][3][4]. - Key recommendations include leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Wuliangye, Jianshiyuan, and Gujing Gongjiu, which are considered to have long-term investment value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fundamental Analysis - In H1 2024, the liquor industry achieved operating revenue of CNY 234.704 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.23%, and a net profit of CNY 95.250 billion, up 13.84%. Revenue and profit growth rates were highest in the mid-range segment, followed by high-end and sub-high-end segments. In Q2 2024, the industry reported operating revenue of CNY 89.695 billion, a 12.31% increase, and a net profit of CNY 33.821 billion, up 10.84% [4][10][12]. - The net profit margin for the liquor industry in H1 2024 was 41.60%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased sales expenses and tax rates. In Q2 2024, the net profit margin was 38.73%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year [4][14][17]. Valuation Analysis - As of August 30, 2024, the absolute PE level for the liquor sector was 18.8x, below the historical average of 28.2x since 2011. The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.5x, also below the historical average of 2.07x. The report indicates that the sector's valuation has declined to below the historical mean, reflecting market pessimism. Despite short-term pressures, the industry is expected to return to an upward cycle in the medium to long term [5][6][8].