Guolian Securities·2024-09-03 06:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant recovery in performance, with a 33.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2024, totaling 79.52 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.78 billion yuan, marking a turnaround of 670 million yuan compared to the previous year [9][10] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 39.45 billion yuan, a 14.2% year-on-year increase, but a 1.5% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.11 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year loss increase of 580 million yuan but a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 570 million yuan [9][10] - The recovery in air travel demand is accelerating, with international routes recovering to 80% of 2019 levels, driven by a 33.4% increase in ASK (Available Seat Kilometers), a 50.0% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers), and a 35.0% increase in passenger volume [9][10] - The company faces challenges from high fuel prices and a depreciating RMB, which led to a foreign exchange loss of 360 million yuan in H1 2024 [9][10] - The company is expected to see accelerated performance recovery during the peak season, with July showing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% in ASK, 20.4% in RPK, and 13.4% in passenger volume, with international passenger volume exceeding 2019 levels by 6.1% [9][10] Financial Summary - For 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 280 million yuan, 6.52 billion yuan, and 13.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of turning profitable, 2255%, and 106% respectively [9][10] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 141.1 billion yuan in 2023 to 170.34 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 20.73% [11] - The EBITDA is projected to increase significantly from 17.62 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.55 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [11]