东南亚消费国别研究：印度尼西亚消费行业现状与展望

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN, with a GDP of USD 1.37 trillion in 2023, accounting for 36% of the total ASEAN economy [2][7] - Domestic consumption is the main driver of economic growth, with consumption contributing approximately 63% to GDP [10][12] - The retail market in Indonesia reached USD 191.3 billion in 2023, with an expected CAGR of 11.1% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong growth potential [26][30] Economic Overview - Indonesia's economic growth has been primarily driven by domestic demand, with a significant shift from the secondary to the tertiary sector post-Asian financial crisis [7][12] - The country has a population of 278 million, with a median age of 30.9 years, indicating a young and growing consumer base [19][20] - The government has been investing heavily in infrastructure, with a budget of IDR 423.4 trillion for 2024, aimed at improving connectivity and supporting economic growth [22] Consumption Trends - Per capita consumption expenditure in Indonesia increased from USD 1,870 in 2015 to USD 2,608 in 2023, with a CAGR of 4.2% [16][17] - The middle class is expanding rapidly, with 72 million middle-class individuals and 128 million new middle-class individuals, representing 26% and 47% of the total population, respectively [19][20] - The halal consumption market is significant, with Indonesia being home to the largest Muslim population globally, presenting vast opportunities for growth in this sector [25] Retail Channels - The retail market is characterized by a balanced distribution among traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels, with e-commerce growing the fastest at a CAGR of approximately 38% from 2018 to 2023 [26][30] - In 2023, traditional, modern, and e-commerce channels accounted for approximately 37%, 30%, and 32% of the retail market, respectively [30][31] - Government regulations are in place to maintain a balance between modern and traditional retail channels, impacting the growth dynamics of the retail sector [28][30]