AikoSolar(SH:600732) Guolian Securities·2024-09-04 08:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests to "pay attention" to the company due to its potential for long-term performance as capacity ramps up [7][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift to negative net profit in H1 2024, with revenue at 5.16 billion yuan, down 68.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.74 billion yuan [3][10]. - The decline in performance is attributed to industry fluctuations, including falling prices for battery cells and modules, decreased sales volume, and impairment provisions totaling 1.18 billion yuan [10]. - The ABC component business is expected to support long-term performance as production capacity gradually increases, despite current profitability being affected during the ramp-up phase [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.16 billion yuan, a decrease of 68.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of -1.74 billion yuan, compared to a positive profit in the previous year [10]. - Q2 2024 revenue was 2.65 billion yuan, down 68.9% year-on-year but up 5.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.65 billion yuan [10]. - The ABC component business generated revenue of 1.7 billion yuan with a gross margin of -0.5%, and shipped 1.6 GW, representing a 232% increase compared to the total shipments in 2023 [10]. Capacity Expansion - As of June 2024, the company has launched 10 GW of battery module capacity in Zhuhai, with 7.5 GW in Yiwu nearing completion, and a 10 GW production line in Jinan expected to start in H1 2025 [10]. - The gradual release of ABC capacity is anticipated to enhance long-term performance, with improvements expected in capital expenditure, energy consumption, and cost efficiency [10]. Market Development - The battery cell business generated revenue of 3.0 billion yuan in H1 2024, with a gross margin of -4.3%, and shipped 12.8 GW of PERC cells [10]. - The company has successfully expanded its overseas sales, with 40.3% of battery cell revenue coming from international markets in Q2 2024, up from 12.7% in 2023 [10]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 18.87 billion yuan, 27.01 billion yuan, and 42.47 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -30.6%, +43.1%, and +57.3% respectively [10]. - Expected net profits for the same period are -1.07 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 2.51 billion yuan, with a significant turnaround anticipated by 2025 [10].