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钢铁产业专题研究报告：探寻韩国钢铁业在减量发展时期的特征及应对措施
HWABAO SECURITIES·2024-09-06 10:03

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The Korean steel industry entered a platform period around the early 21st century, with POSCO responding to declining profits during this reduction phase by cutting capital expenditures and reducing debt levels [2][21] - The unit GDP steel consumption in Korea has decreased from 7248 tons per billion USD in 2001 to 3192 tons per billion USD in 2022, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [2][11] - POSCO has maintained a crude steel production of over 35 million tons despite domestic demand challenges, adjusting its product mix towards higher value-added products [21][29] Summary by Sections 1. Development of the Korean Steel Industry - The Korean steel industry began in the 1960s and has gone through three main phases: initial entry (1968-1972), gradual catch-up (1973-1988), and rapid expansion (post-1989) [9][15] - POSCO played a crucial role in the development of the Korean steel industry, with significant government support and international assistance from Japan [15][17] 2. Economic Context - Korea's GDP growth has slowed from an average of 7.2% from 1991-2000 to 3.5% from 2001-2023, reflecting a transition from rapid industrialization to a more stable growth phase [6][7] - The industrial value added as a percentage of GDP has fluctuated, stabilizing between 32%-34% since 2010 [7] 3. POSCO's Strategic Responses - POSCO has not significantly reduced production but has instead focused on reducing capital expenditures and debt, with capital expenditures dropping from 65.7 trillion KRW in 2013 to 25.6 trillion KRW in 2015 [25][28] - The company has also reduced its R&D spending, which fell from 5.92 trillion KRW in 2011 to 5.37 trillion KRW in 2022 [28] 4. Investment Recommendations - Chinese steel companies are advised to learn from POSCO's experience by adjusting product structures, accelerating mergers and acquisitions, and reducing capital expenditures and debt levels to navigate similar challenges [31]