策略周报：沪指跌破2800，情绪低迷待政策信号

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in the Shanghai Composite Index, which has fallen below 2800, indicating a weak market sentiment that awaits policy signals for improvement [1][4]. - The A-share market has experienced a continued low trading activity, with average daily turnover dropping to 586.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.5 billion yuan from the previous week, reflecting a lack of positive market sentiment [1][11]. - The report notes that the valuation percentiles of major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, have shown a significant decline, indicating a bearish trend in the market [6][7]. Group 2 - Concerns over economic recession have risen due to disappointing overseas economic data, coupled with high uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections, leading to adjustments in overseas stock markets [1][4]. - The report emphasizes the necessity for stronger policy measures to enhance market expectations, as the current economic pressures and insufficient domestic demand continue to weigh on the market [1][4]. - The report indicates a shift in market style towards speculative trading, with a general lack of profitability across industry sectors, suggesting a cautious approach until substantial policy changes are implemented [1][4][12]. Group 3 - The report tracks the A-share risk premium, which has increased compared to the previous week, reaching a new high for the year, indicating heightened risk perceptions among investors [7][8]. - The report also notes a decline in the stock-bond ratio, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards bonds amid the weak equity market [9]. - The industry rotation index has shown an increase, indicating a faster rotation among sectors, although the overall profitability remains weak [12][14]. Group 4 - Upcoming key economic indicators to watch include China's CPI and PPI data on September 9, and U.S. CPI data on September 11, which may influence market expectations and policy decisions [14]. - The report suggests that a rapid decline in inflation could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while slower declines may result in a more gradual approach [14].