轨交设备中报总结与投资展望：内需核心资产，维保周期开启

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the rail transit equipment sector, highlighting the sector's outperformance compared to broader market indices and other machinery sub-sectors [2][7] Core Views - The rail transit equipment sector has shown significant outperformance, with the sector index rising by 1.75% year-to-date, outperforming the machinery sector, Shanghai Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index by 21.36%, 7.53%, and 14.94% respectively [2][7] - The sector is driven by strong demand for new vehicles and increased maintenance capital expenditures, with railway fixed asset investment growing by 10.6% YoY in H1 2024 [3] - The sector's profitability is expected to improve due to the overlapping demand for new vehicles, maintenance, and replacement, with a focus on companies like CRRC, Times Electric, and China Railway Signal & Communication [5] Sector Performance - The rail transit equipment sector has seen a clear divergence in performance, with only 5 out of 30 companies achieving positive returns, and large-cap companies like CRRC, Times Electric, and China Railway Signal & Communication leading the gains [2][8] - The sector's overall revenue and net profit have improved, with total revenue of 30 companies reaching 155.48 billion yuan, up 0.98% YoY, and net profit reaching 9.88 billion yuan, up 3.85% YoY [4] Investment Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the maintenance and replacement cycle, with the demand for railway vehicles expected to grow steadily, driven by the combination of new, maintenance, and replacement needs [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies like CRRC, Times Electric, Thinking Control, and China Railway Signal & Communication, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [5] Railway Fixed Asset Investment - Railway fixed asset investment in H1 2024 reached 337.3 billion yuan, up 10.6% YoY, with the full-year investment expected to exceed 800 billion yuan [11] - The structure of investment has shifted, with a significant increase in vehicle-related expenditures, as new lines of 979.6 kilometers were opened in H1 2024 [11] Vehicle Bidding - The bidding for high-speed trains in H1 2024 exceeded expectations, with 204 sets of trains bid, including 165 sets of 350 km/h trains, surpassing the total bidding volume of 2023 [13] - The bidding volume for high-speed trains in H1 2024 was 204 sets, with 165 sets of 350 km/h trains, indicating strong demand for high-speed rail vehicles [13] Underlying Demand - Railway passenger traffic in H1 2024 reached 2.522 billion passengers, up 15.7% YoY, exceeding pre-pandemic levels [15] - Railway freight traffic in H1 2024 reached 2.945 billion tons, up 2.2% YoY, setting a new historical record [15] National Railway Support - The national railway's profitability has improved significantly, with transportation revenue reaching 484.1 billion yuan in H1 2024, up 4.7% YoY, and net profit reaching 1.7 billion yuan, marking the first time since 2011 that the national railway has achieved a profit in the first half of the year [16] - The debt-to-asset ratio of the national railway has dropped to its lowest level in 10 years [16] Sector Performance Review - The overall revenue and net profit of the rail transit equipment sector have improved, with total revenue of 30 companies reaching 155.48 billion yuan, up 0.98% YoY, and net profit reaching 9.88 billion yuan, up 3.85% YoY [19] - Companies related to vehicle manufacturing have performed more prominently, with revenue of 116.61 billion yuan, up 5.45% YoY, and net profit of 6.5 billion yuan, up 23.62% YoY [23] Profit Margin Improvement - The net profit margin of the sector has improved, with the overall net profit margin of 30 companies reaching 6.36% in H1 2024, up 0.81 percentage points YoY [28] - The net profit margin of vehicle-related companies reached 6.35% in Q2 2024, up 0.52 percentage points YoY [28] Future Demand - The report predicts that the demand for new high-speed rail vehicles will peak in 2025, with the total operating mileage of high-speed rail expected to reach 50,000 kilometers by 2025, up from the current 44,997 kilometers [31] - The demand for maintenance and replacement of high-speed rail vehicles is expected to increase, with the first batch of high-speed rail vehicles expected to reach the end of their service life by 2027 [35] CRRC's Order Trends - CRRC's orders for railway equipment have shown a clear upward trend, with total orders for railway equipment reaching 115.8 billion yuan from December 2023 to July 2024, including 70.1 billion yuan for high-speed trains [38] - CRRC's orders for high-speed train maintenance reached 28.46 billion yuan in H1 2024, exceeding the total for 2023 [38] Profitability Improvement - The profitability of CRRC's vehicle manufacturing business has improved, with the net profit margin of its four major vehicle manufacturing subsidiaries reaching 6.0% in H1 2024, up from 5.9% in 2023 [41] - CRRC's overall net profit margin reached 4.7% in H1 2024, up from 4.0% in 2023 [41]