石油化工行业周报：PX短期供需走宽，产业链利润下游转移

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that PX (Paraxylene) profits have significantly declined since mid-August due to falling oil prices and widening supply-demand dynamics, leading to a shift in profitability towards downstream sectors [3][12] - It is anticipated that while PX supply will remain tight in the medium to long term due to limited new capacity, short-term profitability will remain low, benefiting downstream profitability [3][12] Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: PX supply has increased in the short term due to weakened oil demand, but medium to long-term new capacity additions are limited, keeping supply tight. The only production route for PX is from naphtha, which is also used for toluene production [3][8] - Demand: Downstream PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) has seen reduced profitability leading to more shutdowns, but PTA operating rates have returned to normal levels as the demand season approaches, suggesting future PX demand growth [9][11] Industry Analysis - Upstream: Brent crude oil prices fell to $71.06 per barrel, a decrease of 9.82% from the previous week. The report notes a decline in drilling rig counts and daily rates, indicating a seasonal dip in oil demand [18][20][26] - Refining Sector: The report indicates an improvement in refining margins with rising product price spreads, although overall margins remain low. The Singapore refining margin increased to $9.57 per barrel [40][42] - Polyester Sector: PTA profitability has decreased while polyester filament profitability has improved. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the polyester sector as new capacity comes online [12][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong. It also suggests investing in polyester companies like Tongkun Co., given the expected demand recovery in the upcoming peak season [13][14]