海外经济政策跟踪：避险情绪上升

Economic Overview - Major global stock markets declined last week, with the Nikkei 225 index experiencing the largest drop of 5.8%[6] - The IPE Brent crude oil futures fell by 9.3%[6] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 19 basis points to 3.72%[6] - The U.S. dollar index dropped by 0.5% to 101.2[6] Employment and Inflation - In August, the U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs, but previous months' data were significantly revised downwards, with a three-month average of 116,000 jobs added[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%[8] - The 5-year inflation expectations fell by 15 basis points to 1.86%, while the 10-year expectations decreased by 12 basis points to 2.0%[9] Monetary Policy Expectations - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September remain at 100%, with a 70% probability of a 25 basis point cut[9] - The anticipated total rate cut for the year has increased from 100 basis points to 125 basis points, with expectations of 50 basis points cuts in both November and December[12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to cut rates in September, while the Bank of Japan may continue to raise rates[16] European Economic Indicators - In July, the Eurozone's retail sales index showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a narrowing of the previous month's decline by 0.3 percentage points[14] - The Eurozone PPI year-on-year decline was -2.1%, an improvement of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[14]