东南亚国别消费研究：越南：人口红利期，消费高增长

Economic Overview - Vietnam's GDP reached $419.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 11% of ASEAN's total economy[3] - The country has maintained a high GDP growth rate, with a CAGR of 8.7% over the past 30 years, and is projected to grow at 5.8% in 2024[3] - The industrial sector's contribution to GDP has increased from 18.8% in 2005 to 24.8% in 2022, with manufacturing as a core component[5] Consumption Trends - Total consumer spending in Vietnam grew from $136.7 billion in 2015 to $218.7 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1%[13] - Household consumption accounts for approximately 85-86% of total consumption, significantly higher than China's 70%[13] - The share of essential consumption is higher than discretionary spending, with food and non-alcoholic beverages making up about 31% of household expenditures in 2023[19] Demographic Insights - Vietnam's population reached 100.3 million in 2023, with a median age of 34 years, indicating a young demographic profile[23] - The proportion of the population aged 20-34 years is 23%, which is favorable for economic growth[23] - The total fertility rate is declining, projected to reach 1.96 in 2023, raising concerns about future aging[23] Income and Spending Power - Per capita disposable income increased from $1,594 in 2015 to $2,566 in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1%[17] - The average consumer spending per capita rose from $1,483 to $2,212 during the same period, reflecting a CAGR of 5.1%[17] - Despite lower absolute income levels compared to other ASEAN countries, Vietnam's growth rate in disposable income is the highest in the region[17] Market Opportunities - The retail market in Vietnam is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.4% from 2023 to 2028, reaching $126.3 billion[1] - E-commerce is rapidly expanding, with significant growth in online shopping driven by younger consumers seeking value[29] - The healthcare sector is experiencing growth, with private healthcare facilities increasing from 102 in 2010 to over 300 by 2021[28]