8月CPI、PPI数据点评：8月CPI同比涨幅扩大

CPI Analysis - In August 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year, an expansion of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Food prices rose by 2.8% year-on-year, shifting from flat to growth, significantly influenced by the increase in fresh vegetable prices[2] - Month-on-month, CPI rose by 0.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in non-food prices[2] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, PPI fell by 0.7%, with a decline of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, largely due to price drops in high-energy-consuming industries[2] - Specific declines in high-energy industries included black metal smelting down by 4.4% and non-metallic mineral products down by 0.7%[2] Market Outlook - Fresh vegetable and fruit prices are expected to decline as temperatures cool, with CPI recovery dependent on domestic demand recovery[3] - The easing of last year's base effect may pressure PPI in the short term, but a narrowing of the year-on-year decline is anticipated in the medium to long term[3] - New productive forces and large-scale equipment updates are expected to support PPI stabilization[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in international oil prices and extreme weather events[4]