宏观月报：2024年8月：联储降息临近,美元进入走弱周期

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total of 50 basis points by year-end, although an additional cut may occur[1] - Market expectations for a total cut of over 100 basis points this year and over 200 basis points by the end of 2025 appear overly aggressive[1] - The 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are forecasted to return to 4.1% and 4.0% respectively by year-end[1] Group 2: Economic Conditions in the U.S. and Europe - U.S. inflation continues to cool, with July's overall inflation at 2.9% year-on-year, down from 3.0%[3] - Non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant decline, with a downward revision of 818,000 jobs over the past year[3] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI hit an 8-month low, while the services sector remains strong, indicating a mixed economic outlook[3] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery remains uneven, with July data showing weak consumption despite strong manufacturing supported by international trade[1] - Food inflation is rising, with July's CPI expected to increase significantly, driven by a 20.4% year-on-year rise in pork prices[9] - Real estate sales have stabilized at low levels, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 16% in August[9] Group 4: Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar is expected to continue its downward trend, with a forecasted RMB/USD exchange rate of 7.0 by year-end[1] - Dim Sum bond issuance is anticipated to remain strong, with a year-to-date increase of 41.7% in issuance volume[13] - U.S. Treasury yields fell by 42 basis points for the 2-year and 23 basis points for the 10-year bonds in August, reflecting market expectations for rate cuts[7]