全球市场策略：9月开局不利，会重演8月的震荡吗？：未来市场仍然将反复在“软着陆”和“衰退”中摇摆，大概率最终在明年确认衰退

Global Market Strategy - The report indicates that the market is likely to oscillate between "soft landing" and "recession," with a high probability of confirming a recession next year [1][2] - The initial trading of September saw significant declines in major US indices, reminiscent of the adjustments seen in early August [1][2] - The ISM manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 47.2, below economists' expectations, indicating a continued slowdown in manufacturing activity [1][3] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI has been below the neutral level of 50 for five consecutive months, suggesting a persistent decline in economic activity [1][2] - Key indicators such as new orders and export orders are showing signs of contraction, with the new orders index falling to 44.6 in August [3][8] - The report highlights that the divergence between services and manufacturing sectors is unlikely to last, as historically, service sector resilience does not prevent manufacturing from following suit in downturns [1][3] Employment and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the non-farm payroll data for September is anticipated to be disappointing, which could exacerbate market volatility [1][2] - The unemployment rate has reached its highest level in nearly three years, triggering recession indicators [1][2] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, spiked significantly during both August and September, reflecting heightened panic in the market [1][2] Monetary Policy Environment - Recent shifts in monetary policy have seen a pivot towards a more dovish stance, with the focus shifting from inflation risks to employment market slowdowns [1][2] - The report suggests that the PMI is likely to continue weakening, potentially leading to clearer signals of recession in the coming quarters [1][3] - The difference between new orders and inventory levels is highlighted as an effective leading indicator for PMI, with current trends suggesting ongoing weakness in manufacturing demand [1][8]