日本股市“被动式”上涨的成因

Core Viewpoints - The Japanese stock market's "passive" rise is primarily driven by yen depreciation attracting foreign capital inflows [1] - Secondary factors include the "Japan Premium" policy encouraging companies to increase buybacks and dividends, and weak recovery in China leading to capital inflows into Japan [1] - The outlook suggests a volatile market with domestic demand-driven consumer sectors performing well [1] Profit and Valuation Analysis - The Japanese stock market experienced a "passive" Davis Double in Q2 2023, with both earnings and valuation contributing to index growth [5] - Long-term analysis shows earnings have been the primary driver of Japan's bull market, with valuation centers also rising [6] - Corporate profits and domestic demand have improved due to easing imported inflation [7] Corporate Sector Analysis - Yen depreciation and falling import prices benefit corporate profits, especially for companies with higher overseas revenue (average over 40%) [8][9] - Japanese corporate revenue growth has been positively correlated with yen depreciation from 2017 to 2022 [9] - Corporate confidence is recovering, with increased capital expenditure plans [14][15] Consumer Sector Analysis - Wage growth has exceeded expectations, supporting domestic demand recovery [16] - Despite nominal wage increases, real wages remain constrained by high inflation [16] - Personal consumption expenditure has become the main driver of Japan's real GDP [22] Valuation Drivers - Yen depreciation is the main factor behind valuation increases, with a long-term negative correlation between yen exchange rates and stock market valuations [23] - Foreign investors hold over 30% of Japanese market value, playing a significant role in the market [23] - BPS growth expectations have increased, driving price-to-book ratio improvements [25] Policy Factors - The "Japan Premium" policy has prompted companies to increase buybacks and dividend payouts to improve capital return rates [29][31] - Tokyo Stock Exchange's policies aim to enhance corporate capital efficiency and valuation [29] Global Capital Flows - Global active funds show an inverse relationship in their allocations between China and Japan [32] - As yen depreciates, global funds have increased their allocation to Japanese stocks [23]