海通国际全球能源策略

Group 1: Global Energy Trends - International oilfield service activities are increasing, with a projected 10% year-on-year revenue growth in international markets for Halliburton in FY2024, while North America is expected to see a decline of 6-8%[1] - Schlumberger reported a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase in international revenue, driven by capacity expansion projects and investment recovery, with offshore final investment decisions (FID) expected to exceed $100 billion in 2024[1] - The carbon capture and storage market is projected to grow at an annual rate exceeding 50%, indicating strong growth potential for companies involved in this sector[2] Group 2: Regional Insights - Halliburton expressed confidence in the Middle East market, highlighting significant oil capacity expansion plans in UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Libya, which are driving increased activity[2] - The North American natural gas sector is anticipated to see discussions around its direction, with infrastructure developments making it easier to lay pipelines and data lines[2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The global LNG supply-demand analysis indicates a structural supply shortage may arise by 2030, necessitating an additional 20-70 million tons per year, which is about 5-15% of current global LNG capacity[19] - The refining sector is facing limited profit upside due to high oil prices and new refining capacities, with projected refining margins for 2024 at $7.0 per barrel, slightly down from $7.1[23] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - A cautious stance is recommended for global energy stocks, with expectations of limited earnings growth this year, suggesting a reduction in energy stock holdings[17] - Preference is given to U.S. renewable energy companies over European and Chinese counterparts, driven by recovering solar demand and favorable legislative impacts[8]