8月美国CPI数据：CPI稍显“外冷内热”，美联储预计谨慎降息

Inflation Data - August CPI in the U.S. decreased to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.9% in July, below the market expectation of 2.6%[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained at 3.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations[1] - Month-on-month CPI growth was stable at 0.2%, while core CPI accelerated to 0.3%, exceeding expectations[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction in September deemed appropriate[1] - The Fed is projected to lower rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, totaling 75 basis points for the year[2] - Market expectations indicate an 85% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with potential for a 50 basis point cut in November[2] Economic Indicators - Food prices showed stability with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while energy prices are expected to weaken due to recession concerns[1] - Core goods continued to experience deflation at -1.9%, supporting the easing of inflation[1] - Housing costs unexpectedly rose to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, contributing to a year-on-year rebound of 5.2%[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, U.S. Treasury yields increased, with the 2-year yield rising by 6.2 basis points to 3.650% and the 10-year yield up by 1.5 basis points to 3.654%[2] - The U.S. dollar index initially weakened but rebounded to 101.7414 after the CPI announcement[2] - Major U.S. stock indices collectively rose in response to the economic data[2]