穿越康波周期的百年巨头企业

Industries Resilient Across Kondratiev Cycles - Social basic needs, consumer goods, and capital goods leaders are more likely to survive Kondratiev cycles, with energy, utilities, and food & beverage sectors showing long-term stability[2] - In the US, Japan, and Germany, social basic needs sectors account for 30%, 30%, and 29% respectively of companies founded before 1920, while consumer goods sectors account for 25%, 25%, and 29%[6] - Capital goods sectors in the US, Japan, and Germany account for 18%, 28%, and 14% respectively of companies founded before 1920[6] Key Factors for Longevity - Demand rigidity, technological accumulation, and industry monopolies are the fundamental reasons for industries to survive Kondratiev cycles[2] - Energy and food & beverage sectors exhibit demand rigidity, while utilities combine demand rigidity with industry monopolies[2] - Healthcare combines demand rigidity with technological accumulation, and capital goods sectors rely on technological barriers and industry monopolies[2] Market Performance of Kondratiev Cycle Survivors - Companies that survive Kondratiev cycles show significant excess returns, with the US and UK excelling in IT and consumer discretionary sectors, Japan in communication services, and Germany in consumer sectors[2] - The Kondratiev cycle portfolio in the US shows an annualized return of 12% with a 7% excess return, while Japan's portfolio shows an 8% annualized return with a 5% excess return[47] - The UK's Kondratiev cycle portfolio has a 9% annualized return with a 7% excess return, while Germany's portfolio shows a 4% annualized return with a 1% excess return[48] Sector Stability and Changes - In the US, real estate, diversified financials, technology (software & services, semiconductors), and pharmaceuticals have seen significant increases in market share since 1990, while capital goods and raw materials have declined the most[20] - In Japan, the financial sector has grown since 2000, while the industrial sector has declined significantly[23] - In the UK, the financial sector has further expanded, while the industrial and telecom services sectors have declined[27] - In Germany, capital goods, retail, and healthcare have grown, while raw materials and transportation have declined[29]