宏观：美国降息对我国出口多元化有何影响

Group 1: Export Performance - This year's exports exceeded expectations, primarily driven by exports to Belt and Road countries, which offset declines from developed economies under decoupling conditions[1] - From January to August, dollar-denominated exports grew by 4.6% year-on-year, demonstrating resilience despite market expectations of a significant decline[1] - The share of exports to developed countries and Hong Kong has rapidly decreased, with Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa compensating for this gap since 2021[1] Group 2: Economic Dependencies - Emerging markets' economic cycles are highly correlated with the U.S. monetary cycle, impacting their growth and demand for Chinese exports[3] - Southeast Asia shows a deeper integration with U.S. demand compared to Africa and Latin America, making it more vulnerable to U.S. economic fluctuations[4] - Countries with foreign trade (not net exports) constituting over 25% of GDP are more susceptible to external demand shocks, exemplified by Southeast Asian economies like Thailand and Vietnam[4] Group 3: Future Risks - The potential risk for China's exports arises from the possibility of demand shrinkage in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa due to a downturn in developed economies[5] - The current combination of weak domestic demand and strong external demand faces additional challenges, emphasizing the need to boost domestic consumption[5] - Maintaining export competitiveness may rely on currency adjustments until domestic demand is sufficiently strengthened[5]