行内偕作·宏观点评：美国就业数据点评（2024年8月）-回归均衡

Overall Labor Market - The U.S. labor market is normalizing, with the job vacancy-to-unemployed ratio dropping to 1.1, down from a peak of 2.0 in March 2022, and below the pre-pandemic level of 1.2 in February 2020[3] - The unemployment rate in August decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 14.2 million, which is 5.3 thousand higher than the previous month[3] - The average hourly wage growth month-on-month rose to 0.4%, while year-on-year growth rebounded to 3.8%[2] Structural Imbalances - Despite overall equilibrium, structural imbalances persist in the U.S. job market, with employment cooling significantly while wage growth remains strong[4] - The average hourly wage growth in August was 0.4% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year, exceeding pre-pandemic levels despite weaker job additions[5] - Job vacancies in the service sector remain high, with 50% of service industries having vacancy rates above 5%, while construction vacancy rates are as low as 2.9%[5] Future Outlook - The risk of further cooling in the U.S. job market remains significant, with expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates 2-3 times this year, totaling 50-75 basis points[6] - The marginal support for the U.S. economy is expected to shift from fiscal expansion to monetary easing as the labor market stabilizes[6]