中国海洋石油：业绩表现优异，成本管控能力卓越

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong fundamentals and consistent performance [1][6] Core Views - The company achieved record-high net profit in H1 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 226.8 billion, up 18.1% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders rising 25% YoY to RMB 79.7 billion [1][4] - Free cash flow remained robust at RMB 63.99 billion, with a capital expenditure of RMB 63.1 billion, up 11.7% YoY, completing 47-51% of the annual budget [1][4] - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 0.74 per share, a 25.4% YoY increase, with a payout ratio of 40.3% [1][4] Financial Performance - Net production reached a record high of 362.6 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) in H1 2024, up 9.3% YoY, driven by contributions from domestic fields like Kenli 6-1 and Bozhong 19-6, as well as the Payara project in Guyana [1][5] - Average realized oil price increased by 9.2% YoY to USD 80.32 per barrel in H1 2024, while average realized gas price declined by 4.1% YoY to USD 7.79 per thousand cubic feet [1][5] - The company's cost control was effective, with a 1.5% YoY reduction in barrel oil equivalent cost to USD 27.75 per BOE [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 at RMB 141.8 billion, RMB 152.1 billion, and RMB 163.3 billion, with YoY growth rates of 14.5%, 7.2%, and 7.4%, respectively, assuming a Brent crude price of USD 80 per barrel [1][6] - Under different oil price scenarios (USD 60, 70, and 85 per barrel), the company's net profit for 2025 could range from RMB 100 billion to RMB 163 billion, with dividend yields of 5.3%, 6.8%, and 8.6%, respectively [6] Market Data - As of September 10, 2024, the company's closing price was HKD 19.16, with a total market capitalization of HKD 911.4 billion and total assets of RMB 1.0754 trillion [2] - The company's net asset value per share stood at RMB 15.1, with a dividend yield of 6.5% in 2023, expected to rise to 8.6% by 2026 [3][11]