Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for SQM, suggesting a potential upside of 5%-15% relative to the market index [2][5] Core Views - SQM is a global leader in lithium and iodine businesses, with additional operations in fertilizers and other industrial chemicals [2] - The company benefits from low-cost lithium extraction advantages in the Atacama Salt Flat and has strategic capacity expansions in China and Australia [2] - SQM's partnership with Codelco extends lithium extraction rights until 2060 and increases extraction quotas, enhancing long-term growth prospects [2] - The company expects to achieve a lithium production capacity of 305,000 tons by the end of 2025, maintaining its position as a global leader [2] Financial Performance - SQM's 2024Q2 revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and net income were $1.294 billion, $384 million, $413 million, and $214 million, respectively, reflecting YoY declines of 37%, 55%, 53%, and 63% due to lower lithium and fertilizer prices [2] - Lithium sales in 2024Q2 were $665 million, down 55% YoY but up 21% QoQ, driven by increased sales volume despite a 73% YoY drop in average selling price to $12,700/ton [2] - The company's adjusted EBITDA for 2024-2026 is projected to be $1.58 billion, $1.757 billion, and $2.278 billion, with YoY growth rates of -50.3%, +11.2%, and +29.6%, respectively [2][3] Capacity Expansion and Production Guidance - SQM plans to expand its lithium capacity to 305,000 tons by the end of 2025, including 240,000 tons in Chile, 40,000 tons in China, and 25,000 tons in Australia [2] - The company expects 2024 lithium production to reach 210,000 tons, with sales guidance of 190,000 tons, allowing for inventory accumulation [2] Valuation Metrics - As of September 11, 2024, SQM's stock price implies EV/EBITDA multiples of 6.9x, 6.2x, and 4.8x for 2024-2026, respectively [2] - The company's market capitalization stands at $10.96 billion, with a total equity of $4.94 billion and total assets of $10.77 billion [1] Market Position - SQM held an 18% global market share in lithium sales in 2023, slightly ahead of Albemarle's 17% [2] - Over 90% of SQM's lithium sales are concentrated in the Asian market, highlighting its strong regional presence [2]
智利矿业化工：业绩符合预期，产能有序扩充