NIO(09866) 交银国际证券·2024-09-17 08:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of HKD 59.88, indicating a potential upside of 75.6% from the current price of HKD 34.10 [2][6]. Core Insights - NIO's automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, signaling a turning point for the company. The second quarter revenue was RMB 17.5 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 98.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 76.1%, slightly above expectations due to higher-than-expected sales volume. The automotive gross margin was 12.2%, higher than the anticipated 10-11% due to renegotiated supplier contracts leading to lower unit costs and a slight reduction in discounts and promotions [1][2][3]. - NIO expects third-quarter vehicle deliveries to be between 61,000 and 63,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 10.0% to 13.7%. Total revenue is projected to be between RMB 19.11 billion and RMB 19.67 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of about 0.2% to 3.2%, both figures being historical highs for the company [1][3]. - The report anticipates a sequential improvement in automotive gross margins in the second half of the year, driven by increased sales and reduced promotions. The launch of the new model, the ET5, is expected to further support sales growth and margin improvement [1][2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for NIO are as follows: RMB 55.6 billion in 2023, RMB 62.8 billion in 2024, and RMB 86.4 billion in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.9%, 13.0%, and 37.5% respectively [3][7]. - The net loss is projected to decrease from RMB 20.8 billion in 2023 to RMB 16.9 billion in 2024, indicating a potential improvement in profitability over the next few years [3][7]. - The report highlights that the automotive gross margin is expected to improve further, with the new model, the L60, set to launch at a pre-sale price of RMB 219,900, which is anticipated to be the only option under RMB 200,000 for a swappable battery vehicle [1][2].