交运行业一周天地汇：油轮季节性反弹，把握快递“反内卷”机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the shipping and express delivery sectors, highlighting potential growth opportunities in these areas [3][5][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a seasonal rebound in oil tanker rates, with VLCC rates increasing by 36% to $31,267 per day, driven by tight capacity and demand fluctuations [3][5]. - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant price increases as companies respond to the "anti-involution" initiative, with recommendations for high-growth and high-margin companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [3][5][9]. - The shipbuilding sector is undergoing a restructuring process, which is anticipated to enhance earnings per share (EPS) for companies involved, particularly focusing on China Shipbuilding Defense and China Power [3][5]. Shipping Sector Summary - Oil tanker rates are experiencing a seasonal rebound, with VLCC rates up 36% this week, indicating a positive outlook for the shipping sector despite mid-cycle demand concerns [3][5]. - The report notes that the shipping industry is currently in a long-term supply upcycle, with adjustments in valuations due to pessimistic demand expectations [3][5]. - The report recommends companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, and Xingtong Co., which are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [3][5]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry is entering a peak season with price hikes, driven by a collective effort to maintain a healthy industry ecosystem [3][5][9]. - Recommendations include Shentong Express for high volume growth and YTO Express for consistent performance and service quality [3][5][9]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring Yunda and ZTO Express as key players in the sector [3][5][9]. Aviation Sector Summary - The report highlights a recovery in the aviation sector, with Airbus delivering 36 A320 aircraft in August, indicating a gradual return to pre-pandemic delivery levels [10]. - Recommendations include airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in air travel demand [10]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of global aircraft leasing companies and maintenance service providers in the aviation supply chain [10]. Rail and Road Sector Summary - The report recommends companies like Daqin Railway and China Merchants Highway, noting a stable performance in rail freight volumes [11]. - Data indicates that rail freight volume remains high, with a total of 670 million tons shipped from July to August [11]. - The report suggests monitoring logistics companies like China Railway Special Cargo and Iron Dragon Logistics for potential investment opportunities [11].