本轮美联储降息特点及对A股的影响

Fed Rate Cut Context - The Fed is expected to cut rates in September 2024, with a 50% probability of either a 25bp or 50bp cut[1] - The current US economic environment resembles 1995, with high growth, declining inflation, and low unemployment, but with rising unemployment and higher fiscal deficits[9] - The Fed's rate cut coincides with the US election year, historically leading to more cautious Fed actions[13] China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is slow, with the central bank cutting rates ahead of the Fed, leading to a divergence in monetary policy cycles between the US and China[24] - Positive signals include regulatory support for growth and strong export performance, particularly in high-end manufacturing[32] Impact on A-shares - The Fed's preventive rate cut may improve A-share liquidity in the short term, but long-term performance depends on fundamental recovery[35] - During preventive rate cuts, growth stocks tend to outperform, while value and small-cap stocks perform better during relief rate cuts[39] - In the short term, financial and consumer sectors benefit from improved liquidity, while technology sectors gain traction in the medium term[42] Historical Comparisons - Historically, the Fed has led global central banks in rate cuts, but this time, some emerging and European countries have cut rates ahead of the Fed[18] - The current US fiscal deficit is significantly higher than in 1995, at 6.3% of GDP compared to 2.2%[9]