宏观观点：美联储9月超预期降息50个基点，年内或还有单次50个基点降息

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, exceeding the anticipated 25 basis points[1] - The Fed's statement indicated a shift in focus from inflation to employment, with a notable increase in confidence regarding sustainable inflation near the 2% target[1] - The Fed's quarterly economic projections raised the unemployment rate forecast for 2024 to 4.4%, up by 0.4 percentage points[1] Group 2: Economic Projections - Core PCE inflation forecasts were lowered to 2.6% and 2.2% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, down by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points[1] - The actual GDP growth forecast for 2024 was slightly adjusted down to 2.0%, while remaining unchanged at 2.0% for 2025 and 2026[3] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two more 25 basis point cuts this year, with only one member opposing the September rate cut[1] Group 3: Market Outlook - The unexpected large rate cut reflects the Fed's dovish stance and concerns about a weakening labor market[2] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased, although it is not yet interpreted as an imminent recession[2] - Risks include potential rapid rate cuts by the Fed or geopolitical tensions leading to re-inflation risks[2]