川财证券：研究所晨报-20240919

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in China's export growth rate for the first eight months of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous value [4][12] - In August alone, exports grew by 8.7% year-on-year, marking a substantial increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [12] - The report attributes the unexpected growth in exports to several factors, including the cyclical upturn in the global semiconductor industry, weather-related delays in shipments, and geopolitical tensions leading to increased export activity to avoid potential trade barriers [4][12] Market Trends - The report notes that the total value of imports and exports for China in the first eight months of 2024 reached $4.02 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [12] - ASEAN remains China's largest trading partner, with exports to ASEAN totaling $378.38 billion, accounting for 16.3% of total exports, and showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [12] - Exports to the EU and the US also showed positive trends, with exports to the EU reaching $342.6 billion (14.8% of total exports) and to the US at $334.15 billion (14.4% of total exports), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.7% and 2.8% [12] Product Performance - The report indicates that transportation equipment and electronic products are leading the growth in exports, with significant increases in the export of ships (77.3%), automobiles (20.0%), and automotive parts (5.7%) [12] - In the electronics sector, exports of integrated circuits, LCD panels, and audio-visual equipment also saw substantial growth, with year-on-year increases of 22.0%, 12.4%, and 5.8% respectively [12] Industry Outlook - The report suggests that while external demand may slow and trade frictions could cause short-term disruptions, China's export resilience is expected to continue due to ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing and improving foreign trade [4][12] - The semiconductor equipment market in China is projected to grow, with an expected delivery value exceeding $40 billion in 2024, indicating strong investment potential in this sector [10]