全球流动性风向标系列（十四）：9月美联储FOMC会议点评-后续仍可能会修正降息路径

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - On September 19, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75-5.0%, exceeding market expectations[1] - The decision was influenced by uncertainties in employment and economic outlook, prompting a preemptive rate cut[1] - The median forecast from the dot plot indicates a potential total rate cut of 100 basis points by the end of 2024, with a split among officials on the extent of future cuts[3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Outlook - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, raising concerns about the labor market's stability[1] - Inflation remains sticky, with core inflation showing resilience, which could limit the extent of future rate cuts[2][8] - Market expectations for rate cuts are more optimistic than the Fed's projections, anticipating three additional cuts by year-end compared to the Fed's two[8] Group 3: Future Rate Path and Market Sentiment - The current rate cut cycle is characterized as atypical, heavily reliant on economic data, making future predictions challenging[4] - The Fed's long-term neutral rate has been adjusted upward to 2.9%, indicating limited room for further cuts in the future[14] - The market's projected target rate for 2025 is 2.85%, lower than the Fed's long-term forecast of 2.9%[8]