川财证券：研究所晨报-20240920

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in China's export growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from January to August 2024, which is an improvement of 0.6 percentage points compared to previous data [4][9] - In August 2024 alone, exports grew by 8.7% year-on-year, marking a substantial increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month [4][9] - The report attributes the unexpected growth in exports to several factors, including the cyclical upturn in the global semiconductor industry, weather-related delays in shipments, and geopolitical tensions leading to increased tariffs on Chinese goods [4][9] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the total value of imports and exports for China in the first eight months of 2024 reached $4.02 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [9] - The ASEAN region remains China's largest trading partner, with exports to ASEAN amounting to $378.38 billion, accounting for 16.3% of total exports, and showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [9] - Exports to the EU and the US also showed positive trends, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.7% and 2.8% respectively, indicating a recovery in trade relations [9] Sectoral Insights - The report emphasizes strong growth in the export of transportation equipment and electronic products, with notable increases in the export of ships (77.3%), automobiles (20.0%), and integrated circuits (22.0%) [9] - The report suggests that the ongoing policies aimed at stabilizing and improving the quality of foreign trade will continue to support China's export resilience despite potential short-term disruptions from external demand and trade tensions [4][9] - The report also highlights the importance of the semiconductor industry in driving export growth, as it benefits from the global semiconductor cycle [9]