计算机2024年中报业绩综述：业绩边际改善，关注技术与政策发力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The computer industry has shown marginal improvement in performance, with a focus on technological advancements and policy support [1]. - The industry has experienced significant declines, with the Shenwan Computer Index down 30.31% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 27.12 percentage points [1][7]. - The sector's valuation has reached historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.68, placing it in the 1st percentile since 2017 [1][10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The computer industry has ranked last among 31 Shenwan primary industries, with a significant drop in stock prices and valuations [1][7]. - The index hit a nearly ten-year low on August 28, 2024, following disappointing earnings reports [7]. Performance Overview - In the first half of 2024, the computer sector generated revenue of CNY 543.93 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.53%, but net profit decreased by 35.98% [1][16]. - The second quarter saw revenue growth of 8.91%, with a notable improvement in cash flow [1][31]. - The sector's gross margin fell to 25.26%, reflecting increased competition and rising costs [19][22]. Subsector Performance - The "Xinchuang" (domestic substitution) sector showed strong revenue and profit performance, with significant growth in energy IT and video security [41]. - In the second quarter, revenue growth varied significantly across subsectors, with energy IT and Xinchuang leading the way [41]. Key Tracks - The report highlights the ongoing push for domestic substitution in IT products, with procurement entering a normalization phase [1]. - The integration of vehicle-road-cloud systems is gaining momentum, supported by government policies and significant investments in major cities [1]. - The rapid iteration of AI large models is propelling the industry into a high-growth phase, with increased demand for computing power [1]. Performance in the Greater Bay Area - The Greater Bay Area outperformed the overall sector, achieving a revenue growth of 8.39% and accounting for 26% of the sector's total revenue [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Outperform" rating, as the sector's valuation and fund holdings are at historical lows, with potential for recovery driven by technological and policy support [1]. - Recommended stocks include China Great Wall, Inspur Information, and Desay SV [1].