Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, August 2024

Global Economic Overview - Global economic uncertainty remains elevated due to the high-interest rate environment impacting households and companies [3] - Consumer confidence has declined as high consumer prices continue to affect consumers [5][7] - Deceleration in consumer spending continues across the board, with the exception of Brazil [6][11] Business and Industry - Manufacturing sector tips into contraction for the first time in 2024, while services continue to grow steadily [6][14] - Manufacturing growth stalls in China and the US for the first time in 2024, with the sector remaining in contraction in the eurozone [6][17] - Services sector remains the brightest spot on the global economic map, with main economies continuing growth in July [6][20] - Economic growth is accelerating, driven primarily by increases in industrial production and capital markets [6][23] Trade and External Factors - World trade volumes increased by 0.7% in June, driven by growth across all trade flows in advanced economies [6][26] - Global supply chain markets continue to normalize as the pressure index reaches historical average value in July [6][28] - In June, trade in the United States saw an increase, whereas China and Brazil experienced a decline in exports [6][31] - Container Throughput Index remained steady at around 130 points in June, but port trade activities showed a decline of 3.5% compared to May [6][35] - Total port trade experienced a decline in June 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily driven by decreases in activity within Asian economies [6][41] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rate in both the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil has shown a downward trend since April [6][43] - Inflation continues to ease among developed economies, with deflation still present among producers in the eurozone [6][46] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia seeing an acceleration [6][49] - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [6][53] Financial Markets - Equity markets experienced a troubled August, with most stock exchanges experiencing losses [6][73] - Volatility showed a slight upward trend in August but remains within controlled levels historically [6][76] - The cost of capital was stable in August, given stabilization in inflation and a wait-and-see approach from markets regarding interest rate decisions [6][80] - Interest rates continue largely unchanged in 2024, with increasing expectations around cuts and their magnitude [6][82] Commodities and Food Prices - Metal prices edged down slightly due to slower demand in global commodity markets [6][61] - Food prices remained broadly unchanged in July, still presenting a 19% increase compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][67] - The end prices that consumers pay for commodities dropped significantly in 2024 but remain relatively high compared to pre-pandemic levels [6][70]