中国海外发展：财务安全，派息持续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting revenue growth for 2024 and 2025 at 0.8% and 0.9% respectively, while core net profit is expected to decrease by 4.0% in 2024 and increase by 3.2% in 2025 [2][3][13]. Core Insights - The company's mid-year performance for 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 86.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. Revenue from real estate development and commercial property operations was 82.04 billion yuan and 3.54 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 3.2% and an increase of 19.8% respectively [5][9]. - The company faced pressure on sales, with contract sales amounting to 148.38 billion yuan and an area of 5.44 million square meters, representing declines of 17.6% and 32.3% year-on-year. The company has been cautious in land acquisition, adding only 6 plots of land in the first half of 2024, with a total land reserve area of 3.322 million square meters [9][11]. - The company maintains a strong financial position with a net debt ratio of 38.7%, which is low compared to industry standards. The average financing cost has decreased to 3.50%, and the company holds over 100 billion yuan in cash reserves [11][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported a core net profit of 10.64 billion yuan, down 23% year-on-year, and a mid-year dividend of 0.30 HKD per share, a decrease of 14.3% [5][6][9]. - The gross margin and core net profit margin for the first half of 2024 were 22.1% and 12.2%, respectively, both showing slight declines but remaining at a high industry level [7][11]. Revenue Projections - The projected revenue for 2024 and 2025 is 204.1 billion yuan and 206 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 0.8% and 0.9% [4][13]. - Core net profit projections for 2024 and 2025 are 22.7 billion yuan and 23.4 billion yuan, with a decrease of 4.0% in 2024 followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2025 [4][13]. Land Acquisition and Sales - The company has been cautious in land acquisition, with new land purchases accounting for only 9% of sales in the first half of 2024. The total land reserve continues to be depleted, with a total of 3.322 million square meters as of June 30, 2024 [9][11].