如何看待中国船舶和中国重工的重组合并

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Insights - On September 18, China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry announced the plan for a stock swap merger, with the swap ratio set at 1:0.1335, meaning each share of China Heavy Industry can be exchanged for 0.1335 shares of China Shipbuilding. The swap prices are determined at 37.84 CNY/share for China Shipbuilding and 5.05 CNY/share for China Heavy Industry [10] - Short-term arbitrage opportunities are limited, while medium to long-term stock prices will be driven by industry trends. The initial arbitrage opportunity of 6.47% has already been realized on the first trading day after resumption [10] - The merger is expected to significantly increase net assets per share, with combined total assets of 375.38 billion CNY and net assets of 131.57 billion CNY post-merger, indicating a 1+1>2 effect [10] - The core pricing of stock post-merger will still depend on the cyclical fundamentals of the industry, with a projected reasonable price range for China Shipbuilding's stock between 42.9 CNY and 56 CNY based on price-to-book (PB) ratios [10] Summary by Sections - Merger Announcement: The merger plan was disclosed on September 18, with stock resumption on September 19. The specific swap ratio and prices were outlined [10] - Market Reaction: The initial arbitrage opportunity was noted, but it has been realized quickly, indicating that future price movements will align closely with the merger terms [10] - Asset Evaluation: Post-merger, the total assets and net assets are expected to increase significantly, enhancing the financial position of the combined entity [10] - Future Outlook: The report anticipates a performance release period around 2026, driven by the new platform's capabilities in the shipbuilding sector [10]