美国电新与火电：美联储降息幅度超预期，美国市场短期利好新能源，长期看好天然气发电与核电

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the new energy sector in the short term due to the Federal Reserve's unexpected rate cut, while maintaining optimism towards natural gas and nuclear power in the long term [1][8]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points is expected to lower project financing costs and enhance the returns on photovoltaic and energy storage projects, benefiting the development of new energy projects [1][8]. - The report highlights that the rate cut will stimulate installation demand for photovoltaic and wind power by reducing financing costs, with significant growth expected in new installations for both sectors in 2024 [2][9]. - Long-term challenges for the new energy sector include an aging power grid and a backlog of nearly 2600GW of energy waiting to be connected, which may limit future development [10]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The report notes that the U.S. photovoltaic installation capacity reached 32.4GW in 2023, a 51% year-on-year increase, with expectations of 43.3GW in new installations for 2024, representing a 34% increase [2][9]. - For wind power, 1.97GW of new installations were added in the first half of 2024, with an anticipated total of 8.2GW for the year, marking a 13.9% increase [2][9]. Energy Storage - The report emphasizes that the rate cut will improve the internal rate of return for large-scale energy storage projects, with expectations of 11.1GW/31.6GWh of new installations in 2024 and a cumulative addition of 62.6GW/219GWh from 2024 to 2028 [9][10]. - The significant growth in energy storage installations is attributed to the 2022 IRA policy, which allows independent energy storage to enjoy tax credits [9]. Traditional Energy - The rapid growth of data centers in the U.S. is leading to increased demand for traditional energy sources, particularly natural gas and nuclear power, with natural gas generation's share rising from 37% in 2021 to 42% in 2023 [11][12]. - The report highlights the importance of nuclear power in meeting the stability requirements of data centers, with the federal government providing loans to restart closed nuclear facilities [11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in AI data center equipment and construction, power grid equipment, and suppliers of natural gas and nuclear power [13].