汽车：新势力如何跨越盈亏平衡点？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes how new energy vehicle companies can cross the breakeven point, focusing on the financial characteristics of companies like Li Auto and Seres during their transition to profitability [2][42] - Key factors for achieving profitability include stable expense management, product structure improvement, and the realization of scale effects through increased sales volume [42] Summary by Sections Section 1: Crossing the Breakeven Point - Li Auto and Seres have successfully crossed the breakeven point by increasing sales volume and improving operating profit [8] - Li Auto's sales in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 were 46,000 and 53,000 units respectively, with revenues of 17.65 billion and 18.787 billion yuan, achieving operating profits of -134 million and 405 million yuan [8] - Seres' sales in Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 were 104,000 and 83,000 units, with revenues of 19.16 billion and 26.56 billion yuan, achieving operating profits of -613 million and 313 million yuan [8] Section 2: Indicators for Future Profitability - Key indicators for assessing whether a new energy vehicle company can achieve profitability include gross profit margin, average selling price (ASP), and depreciation [27] - Scale effects, ASP, and depreciation are critical factors influencing gross profit margins [27] Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have already achieved profitability and are experiencing sustained sales growth, such as Li Auto and Xpeng Motors, while also monitoring Seres [42] - Li Auto is expected to benefit from cost reductions and scale effects, with gross margins projected to return to around 20% [42] - Xpeng Motors is anticipated to enter a new product cycle, with expectations of achieving profitability by 2025 [42] - Seres is projected to achieve significant sales growth, with expected revenues of 150.4 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan in 2024 [42]