不锈钢周报-进入宏观真空期，盘面或重回弱势

Market Dynamics - By 2027, over 80% of steel production capacity in China is expected to complete ultra-low emission transformations, with 30% achieving energy efficiency benchmarks[3] - In October 2024, the procurement price for high-carbon ferrochrome by Qingshan Group is set at 8295 CNY/50kg, a decrease of 400 CNY from the previous month[3] - China's nickel-iron imports in August 2024 totaled 522,315.333 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 36.37% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.56%[3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The production cost for 304 cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 13,850 CNY/ton, with potential for further cost reduction[3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase steadily, but demand remains weak, particularly during the traditional consumption peak[3] - Social inventory of stainless steel increased by 0.68% week-on-week, with cold-rolled stainless steel inventory rising by 0.88%[10] Trading Logic - The market is characterized by a bearish sentiment due to high production and inventory levels, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers[3] - The current market conditions indicate a potential return to weakness, with a focus on support around 13,000 CNY[3] - The overall trading atmosphere remains subdued, with limited purchasing activity leading to a slow inventory depletion rate[7] Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows a bearish trend, with MACD indicators suggesting a weakening market sentiment[14] - The price of stainless steel is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels[7]